Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.7%
Win probability
2.52
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.7%
2-0
10%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.8%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.4%
11.9%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 1927 |
MUD
1 - 7
NEW
41%
26%
33%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1927 |
DER
1 - 1
NEW
53%
23%
24%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1927 |
NEW
4 - 1
TOT
69%
17%
14%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Aug. 1927 |
HUR
1 - 3
NEW
52%
24%
24%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1927 |
LEI
2 - 1
NEW
55%
22%
23%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 1927 |
DER
2 - 1
LEI
58%
22%
20%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1927 |
DER
1 - 1
NEW
53%
23%
24%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1927 |
OPA
2 - 2
DER
49%
25%
26%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1927 |
DER
2 - 3
WHU
58%
22%
21%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1927 |
BCF
1 - 2
DER
62%
21%
18%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |