Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.3%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.8%
4-0
6%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.4%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.3%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.2%
9.5%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 1912 |
BBU
2 - 0
NEW
53%
23%
24%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 1912 |
NEW
1 - 0
SHW
63%
20%
17%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1912 |
EVE
0 - 6
NEW
49%
24%
27%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | +1 |
| 19 Oct. 1912 |
NEW
1 - 1
WBA
74%
16%
10%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1912 |
MAC
0 - 1
NEW
47%
24%
29%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 1912 |
DER
5 - 1
SHE
59%
21%
20%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 1912 |
BOL
1 - 1
DER
69%
18%
14%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 1912 |
DER
4 - 2
LIV
54%
22%
25%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1912 |
ASV
5 - 1
DER
83%
11%
6%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1912 |
DER
2 - 1
MUD
44%
23%
33%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |