EFL Cup Semi-finals
First-leg 2-0
Newcastle vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.1%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.1%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
46.2%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
9.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.5%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
NEW
1 - 2
FUL
59%
23%
19%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
SOU
1 - 3
NEW
18%
21%
61%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
NEW
1 - 4
BOU
57%
23%
20%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
NEW
3 - 0
WOL
64%
21%
16%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
NEW
3 - 1
BRO
85%
12%
4%
|
93 | 59 | 34 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
ARS
5 - 1
MAC
35%
24%
42%
|
96 | 97 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
GIR
1 - 2
ARS
24%
22%
53%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
WOL
0 - 1
ARS
15%
21%
63%
|
96 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2025 |
ARS
3 - 0
DZG
82%
13%
6%
|
96 | 83 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
ARS
2 - 2
ASV
66%
20%
14%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | 0 |