Newcastle vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.9%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.8%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
23%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
27.2%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 1949 |
LIV
2 - 2
NEW
59%
21%
20%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1949 |
NEW
2 - 2
SUN
55%
21%
24%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1949 |
BUR
1 - 2
NEW
42%
26%
32%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 1949 |
NEW
4 - 1
STO
56%
21%
23%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Sep. 1949 |
FUL
2 - 1
NEW
43%
25%
32%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 1949 |
ARS
1 - 0
BPO
71%
16%
13%
|
86 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1949 |
MID
1 - 1
ARS
43%
24%
33%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1949 |
ARS
5 - 2
EVE
73%
16%
11%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 1949 |
DER
1 - 2
ARS
57%
21%
22%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1949 |
ARS
4 - 2
BIR
77%
15%
9%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |