Newcastle vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.6%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
9%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
11.7%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Sep. 1919 |
NEW
0 - 2
WBA
53%
25%
23%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1919 |
ARS
0 - 1
NEW
42%
26%
32%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1915 |
NEW
3 - 0
ASV
42%
25%
34%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 1915 |
NOT
1 - 0
NEW
54%
25%
21%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
NEW
2 - 1
BBU
38%
26%
37%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 1919 |
LIV
2 - 3
ARS
81%
12%
7%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1919 |
ARS
0 - 1
NEW
42%
26%
32%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1915 |
ARS
7 - 0
NTT
70%
18%
12%
|
70 | 54 | 16 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
PNE
3 - 0
ARS
69%
18%
13%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 1915 |
ARS
3 - 1
BCF
65%
21%
15%
|
70 | 64 | 6 | +1 |