NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.7%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.7%
19.5%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
6
7º
14º
7º
3
9º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 70 |
1º
|
39% | |
|
2º
|
13 | 67 |
2º
|
22% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 66 |
3º
|
17.5% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 61 |
4º
|
11% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 60 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 59 |
6º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
6 | 52 |
7º
|
13.5% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 48 |
8º
|
15.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 46 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 45 |
10º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 41 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 41 |
12º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 40 |
13º
|
11% | |
|
|
16º
|
3 | 34 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 34 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 31 |
16º
|
16% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
17º
|
25.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
40.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
3.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
6.5% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
51% | 4.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
36.5% | 61% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0.5% | 16% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 18.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
NEC Nijmegen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
PSV
2 - 0
NEC
60%
21%
19%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
FOR
0 - 3
NEC
32%
24%
45%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
NEC
1 - 0
ZWO
56%
22%
22%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 0
NEC
60%
21%
19%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
NEC
1 - 2
TWE
31%
24%
45%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Heracles
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
HER
0 - 0
ALM
51%
24%
26%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
ZWO
3 - 0
HER
44%
25%
31%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
HER
1 - 1
WIL
34%
24%
42%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
HER
1 - 3
PSV
19%
20%
61%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
SPA
0 - 0
HER
52%
24%
24%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |