Naval vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.1%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.2%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
15.9%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Naval
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
POR
1 - 1
NAV
44%
26%
30%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
NAV
3 - 0
FEI
59%
23%
18%
|
64 | 57 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
NAV
2 - 2
SAN
45%
25%
30%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
SPC
0 - 2
NAV
29%
28%
43%
|
64 | 52 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
NAV
2 - 0
SAL
56%
23%
21%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
PEN
3 - 0
SPC
58%
24%
18%
|
56 | 50 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
SAL
3 - 1
PEN
52%
25%
23%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
PEN
2 - 0
FEL
53%
25%
22%
|
56 | 53 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
EST
2 - 0
PEN
38%
28%
34%
|
57 | 52 | 5 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
PEN
4 - 4
AVE
42%
27%
31%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | 0 |