Naval vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.9%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
20.6%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.7%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Naval
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2003 |
ESP
1 - 1
NAV
34%
26%
40%
|
61 | 53 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2003 |
LEC
1 - 1
NAV
31%
27%
42%
|
61 | 52 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2003 |
NAV
1 - 1
FCM
62%
20%
17%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2003 |
NAV
6 - 1
RIO
47%
26%
28%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Jan. 2003 |
OVA
2 - 3
NAV
40%
25%
35%
|
60 | 55 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2003 |
PEN
2 - 0
CHA
38%
27%
35%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2003 |
FAR
1 - 0
PEN
51%
25%
24%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Jan. 2003 |
SAL
1 - 0
PEN
61%
22%
17%
|
59 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2003 |
PEN
1 - 0
EST
38%
28%
34%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2002 |
UNI
0 - 1
PEN
34%
29%
37%
|
58 | 48 | 10 | +1 |