Copa do Brasil 1/16
Global 4-2
Náutico vs Ivinhema analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.3%
Win probability
2.57
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.8%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.9%
3-0
11.1%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.7%
2-0
13%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.2%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.2%
7.5%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Náutico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2010 |
NAU
4 - 4
YPI
79%
14%
7%
|
72 | 43 | 29 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2010 |
SAL
0 - 1
NAU
14%
19%
67%
|
71 | 50 | 21 | +1 |
| 28 Feb. 2010 |
NAU
1 - 1
VCR
85%
11%
4%
|
71 | 36 | 35 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2010 |
IVI
1 - 1
NAU
17%
20%
63%
|
72 | 52 | 20 | -1 |
| 20 Feb. 2010 |
SPO
1 - 1
NAU
57%
22%
21%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Ivinhema
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 2010 |
MUN
1 - 2
IVI
20%
24%
56%
|
52 | 22 | 30 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2010 |
IVI
1 - 1
NAV
54%
23%
23%
|
52 | 50 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2010 |
IVI
4 - 1
7DE
71%
18%
12%
|
52 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2010 |
IVI
1 - 1
NAU
17%
20%
63%
|
52 | 72 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2010 |
IVI
4 - 1
GUA
80%
14%
6%
|
52 | 8 | 44 | 0 |