Copa do Brasil 1/64
Global 3-0
Náutico vs Brasília analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.8%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
18.6%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Náutico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2015 |
SAL
4 - 1
NAU
36%
28%
36%
|
56 | 53 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2015 |
BRA
0 - 1
NAU
38%
27%
35%
|
56 | 52 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2015 |
NAU
0 - 2
SPO
23%
24%
53%
|
56 | 74 | 18 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2015 |
SAL
3 - 1
NAU
31%
28%
41%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 2015 |
SER
0 - 2
NAU
21%
27%
53%
|
57 | 44 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Brasília
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2015 |
LUZ
1 - 1
BRA
31%
27%
42%
|
51 | 45 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2015 |
BRA
2 - 0
PAR
70%
19%
11%
|
51 | 34 | 17 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2015 |
BRA
0 - 1
NAU
38%
27%
35%
|
52 | 56 | 4 | -1 |
| 29 Mar. 2015 |
PAR
1 - 3
BRA
25%
25%
51%
|
51 | 36 | 15 | +1 |
| 25 Mar. 2015 |
BRA
2 - 1
SAN
76%
17%
8%
|
51 | 26 | 25 | 0 |