Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 1-2
Napoli vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.6%
Win probability
2.14
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.8%
2-0
10%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
16.5%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Napoli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
NAP
0 - 0
VER
86%
10%
4%
|
93 | 77 | 16 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2023 |
ACM
1 - 0
NAP
29%
25%
47%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
LEC
1 - 2
NAP
12%
20%
68%
|
93 | 78 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
NAP
0 - 4
ACM
67%
19%
14%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | -1 |
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
TOR
0 - 4
NAP
14%
22%
64%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
BOL
1 - 1
ACM
21%
24%
55%
|
91 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2023 |
ACM
1 - 0
NAP
29%
25%
47%
|
90 | 93 | 3 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
ACM
0 - 0
EMP
74%
17%
9%
|
90 | 78 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
NAP
0 - 4
ACM
67%
19%
14%
|
90 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
UDI
3 - 1
ACM
23%
25%
52%
|
90 | 82 | 8 | 0 |