Nacional vs Varzim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.2%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.3%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
25.5%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2003 |
PAÇ
3 - 3
NAC
53%
25%
23%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2003 |
NAC
2 - 1
SAN
46%
25%
29%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 2003 |
ACA
2 - 2
NAC
50%
24%
26%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2003 |
NAC
1 - 2
FCP
18%
24%
58%
|
64 | 88 | 24 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2003 |
VST
2 - 2
NAC
53%
23%
24%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Varzim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2003 |
VAR
0 - 2
UDL
29%
27%
44%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2003 |
SLB
2 - 1
VAR
78%
15%
7%
|
65 | 84 | 19 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2003 |
VAR
1 - 0
BMA
46%
27%
28%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Mar. 2003 |
MAR
2 - 0
VAR
58%
23%
19%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 2003 |
VAR
0 - 1
VIT
39%
27%
34%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | 0 |