Nacional vs Sporting Braga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.2%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.2%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.4%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.1%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.6%
63.2%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
2.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
19%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
4%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.8%
0-4
3.7%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.8%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.4%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
8º
16º
15º
11
4º
9º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
18 | 75 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
2º
|
15 | 71 |
2º
|
29.5% | |
|
3º
|
13 | 69 |
3º
|
24.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
11 | 68 |
4º
|
24.5% | |
|
5º
|
12 | 60 |
5º
|
34% | |
|
6º
|
11 | 51 |
6º
|
19% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 50 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
4º
|
12 | 46 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 43 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 40 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
15º
|
5 | 38 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
7 | 38 |
13º
|
9.5% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
4 | 37 |
15º
|
13% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 31 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 26 |
17º
|
30% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 25 |
18º
|
36% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 12.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 20% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 26% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 24.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
80% | 17% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
10% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
EST
1 - 0
NAC
44%
26%
30%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 0
FAR
46%
25%
29%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 6
SCP
20%
22%
59%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
AVE
1 - 1
NAC
24%
27%
49%
|
73 | 58 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Sporting Braga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
SPB
0 - 2
VIT
56%
23%
21%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
GFC
0 - 0
SPB
15%
19%
66%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2024 |
RAP
2 - 2
SPB
22%
22%
56%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SPB
3 - 1
MOR
66%
21%
14%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
SPB
2 - 1
RAP
62%
20%
17%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |