Nacional vs Sporting Braga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.2%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.2%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.4%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.1%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.6%
63.1%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23%
0-2
9.3%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
2.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
19%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.8%
0-4
3.7%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.8%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.4%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
8º
17º
14º
40
4º
9º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 77 |
1º
|
66.5% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 73 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
43 | 67 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
43.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 54 |
5º
|
34.5% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 54 |
6º
|
35.5% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 45 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 43 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 41 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 38 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
19 | 34 |
14º
|
24.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
17º
|
31% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 25 |
18º
|
44.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 5.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 14.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 32% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 43.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
74.5% | 4.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
16.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
9% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
EST
1 - 0
NAC
44%
26%
30%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 0
FAR
46%
25%
29%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 6
SCP
20%
22%
59%
|
74 | 89 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
AVE
1 - 1
NAC
24%
27%
49%
|
74 | 60 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Sporting Braga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
SPB
0 - 2
VIT
56%
23%
21%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
GFC
0 - 0
SPB
15%
19%
66%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2024 |
RAP
2 - 2
SPB
22%
22%
56%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SPB
3 - 1
MOR
66%
21%
14%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
SPB
2 - 1
RAP
62%
20%
17%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | 0 |