Nacional vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.9%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.1%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
9.7%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
26.4%
21.7%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 1990 |
CHA
3 - 3
NAC
57%
24%
19%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1989 |
VST
3 - 0
NAC
64%
21%
15%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1989 |
EST
3 - 0
NAC
60%
22%
17%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | -1 |
| 26 Nov. 1989 |
NAC
0 - 0
UNM
56%
25%
19%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 1989 |
BOA
4 - 1
NAC
66%
21%
13%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 1990 |
PEN
0 - 0
BMA
41%
31%
28%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1990 |
VIT
2 - 0
PEN
69%
20%
12%
|
64 | 77 | 13 | -1 |
| 31 Dec. 1989 |
PEN
1 - 0
VST
30%
32%
39%
|
63 | 73 | 10 | +1 |
| 23 Dec. 1989 |
BEL
2 - 1
PEN
71%
19%
11%
|
63 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1989 |
PEN
1 - 0
EST
35%
32%
34%
|
62 | 71 | 9 | +1 |