Taça de Portugal Semi-finals
Global 4-5
Nacional vs Paços de Ferreira analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.8%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
22.9%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 1
SPB
43%
28%
30%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2009 |
TRO
1 - 2
NAC
29%
30%
41%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2009 |
RIO
0 - 3
NAC
34%
29%
38%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 1
MAR
50%
26%
24%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2009 |
VST
2 - 0
NAC
37%
28%
35%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Paços de Ferreira
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2009 |
EST
0 - 2
PAÇ
42%
27%
31%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2009 |
PAÇ
1 - 1
VIT
46%
26%
28%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2009 |
NAV
0 - 0
PAÇ
40%
26%
34%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2009 |
PAÇ
4 - 0
LEX
51%
26%
23%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | +2 |
| 07 Mar. 2009 |
SCP
2 - 0
PAÇ
72%
17%
10%
|
71 | 88 | 17 | -1 |