Nacional vs Porto analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.2%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.4%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.7%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
55.5%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
0-1
11%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
9.8%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.1%
0-3
5.8%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
8.9%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.6%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
8º
17º
14º
41
1º
3º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 77 |
1º
|
71% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 71 |
2º
|
31.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
31.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 53 |
5º
|
40% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 44 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 43 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 40 |
12º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 40 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
19 | 35 |
14º
|
25.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
28.5% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
27% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 27 |
17º
|
20% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
18º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 9% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 29.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 31.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 27.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
88.5% | 2.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
7.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
RIO
2 - 1
NAC
54%
24%
22%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2024 |
VIT
2 - 2
NAC
70%
19%
11%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 2
SLB
21%
23%
56%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 0
MOR
29%
26%
45%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
GFC
2 - 1
NAC
50%
26%
25%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Porto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
1 - 0
FCP
52%
22%
26%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
FCP
4 - 0
BOA
72%
17%
11%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
MOR
0 - 3
FCP
30%
25%
45%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2024 |
FCP
2 - 0
ESA
76%
16%
8%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2024 |
FCP
2 - 0
MID
60%
21%
19%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |