Nacional vs Fatima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.7%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2%
5-0
4%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.9%
4-0
8%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.3%
3-0
12.7%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.5%
2-0
15.3%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22%
13.6%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
13.6%
5.7%
Win probability
0.52
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
4.6%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov. 2009 |
LEX
2 - 4
NAC
35%
28%
37%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 1
ATH
39%
27%
35%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | +1 |
| 01 Nov. 2009 |
NAC
2 - 1
VST
64%
22%
14%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2009 |
SLB
6 - 1
NAC
69%
19%
11%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2009 |
ATH
2 - 1
NAC
65%
21%
14%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Fatima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2009 |
POR
3 - 3
FAT
61%
24%
16%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2009 |
FAT
2 - 1
MAR
22%
23%
55%
|
56 | 74 | 18 | +1 |
| 08 Nov. 2009 |
FAT
3 - 0
SPC
36%
28%
36%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | +2 |
| 01 Nov. 2009 |
FAT
2 - 2
PEN
35%
28%
38%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2009 |
TRO
3 - 0
FAT
63%
21%
16%
|
55 | 64 | 9 | -1 |