Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.2%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.7%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
14.9%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 2007 |
SPB
1 - 1
NAC
59%
24%
18%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2007 |
NAC
3 - 0
BMA
61%
23%
17%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2007 |
FCP
2 - 0
NAC
71%
19%
10%
|
71 | 88 | 17 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2007 |
NAC
1 - 0
EST
64%
22%
15%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2007 |
UDL
1 - 0
NAC
45%
28%
27%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
CF Estrela Amadora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2007 |
EST
0 - 1
EST
40%
26%
34%
|
66 | 57 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2007 |
EST
1 - 1
UDL
37%
30%
34%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2007 |
AVE
0 - 1
EST
42%
28%
30%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2007 |
EST
1 - 0
PAÇ
33%
28%
40%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | +1 |
| 29 Apr. 2007 |
NAC
1 - 0
EST
64%
22%
15%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | 0 |