Nacional vs Estoril analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.2%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.4%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.2%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.6%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
36.1%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.1%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
8º
17º
14º
27
8º
17º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 77 |
1º
|
71% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 71 |
2º
|
31.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
31.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
42% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 53 |
5º
|
40% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
27.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 44 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 43 |
11º
|
17% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 40 |
12º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 40 |
13º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
19 | 35 |
14º
|
25.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
28.5% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
27% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 27 |
17º
|
20% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
18º
|
32.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
88.5% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
7.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
NAC
1 - 2
ARO
36%
26%
38%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
2 - 0
NAC
75%
16%
10%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
3 - 1
AVE
62%
23%
15%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
2 - 0
FCP
21%
23%
56%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | +2 |
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
RIO
2 - 1
NAC
54%
24%
22%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Estoril
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
GFC
1 - 2
EST
43%
26%
31%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
EST
1 - 0
VIT
26%
25%
49%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
SAN
2 - 3
EST
45%
27%
28%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
ESA
2 - 4
EST
36%
26%
37%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
EST
2 - 2
MOR
32%
27%
41%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |