Q. Europa League PlayOffs Final
Global 0-3
Nacional vs Birmingham City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.7%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.6%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.5%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.2%
27.1%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
FEI
0 - 0
NAC
25%
27%
48%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2011 |
HÄC
2 - 1
NAC
49%
24%
27%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Jul. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 0
HÄC
52%
24%
24%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Jul. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 0
FHH
49%
24%
28%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2011 |
FHH
1 - 1
NAC
52%
23%
25%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Birmingham City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
BIR
1 - 0
COV
67%
21%
12%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2011 |
DER
2 - 1
BIR
22%
25%
52%
|
81 | 62 | 19 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2011 |
TOT
2 - 1
BIR
70%
19%
12%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | -2 |
| 15 May. 2011 |
BIR
0 - 2
FUL
38%
28%
34%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
NEW
2 - 1
BIR
56%
23%
21%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |