Nacional vs Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.7%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.9%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
57.7%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
10.2%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.7%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
9.5%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2002 |
BMA
0 - 2
NAC
54%
23%
23%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2002 |
NAC
0 - 0
MAR
35%
28%
37%
|
62 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2002 |
VIT
3 - 2
NAC
61%
21%
18%
|
63 | 69 | 6 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2002 |
NAC
0 - 1
GFC
51%
25%
24%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2002 |
NAC
2 - 0
FEL
64%
21%
15%
|
63 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2002 |
SLB
3 - 1
UDL
69%
19%
12%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2002 |
MOR
2 - 3
SLB
19%
23%
57%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2002 |
BMA
0 - 2
SLB
24%
23%
53%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2002 |
SLB
3 - 0
MAR
66%
20%
14%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 May. 2002 |
MAR
3 - 2
SLB
32%
26%
43%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | -1 |