Nacional SP vs Mauá analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.5%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.4%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
15.1%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 2023 |
MAU
1 - 2
NAC
11%
20%
70%
|
42 | 19 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
NAC
2 - 0
BAR
74%
16%
10%
|
42 | 16 | 26 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2023 |
ECU
0 - 1
NAC
11%
15%
74%
|
42 | 13 | 29 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2023 |
NAC
1 - 2
JAB
78%
15%
7%
|
42 | 21 | 21 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
MFC
0 - 1
NAC
15%
19%
66%
|
42 | 28 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Mauá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May. 2023 |
BAR
1 - 0
MFC
17%
20%
63%
|
28 | 15 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
MFC
5 - 1
ECU
63%
21%
16%
|
27 | 12 | 15 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2023 |
JAB
0 - 1
MFC
25%
23%
52%
|
27 | 22 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2023 |
MAU
1 - 1
MFC
27%
22%
51%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
MFC
0 - 1
NAC
15%
19%
66%
|
28 | 42 | 14 | -1 |