Nacional SP vs Jabaquara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.3%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
3.6%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.6%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.7%
3-0
11.4%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.7%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.4%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
14.5%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
14.4%
7.3%
Win probability
0.63
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.5%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
MFC
0 - 1
NAC
15%
19%
66%
|
43 | 30 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 0
OLI
57%
23%
20%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2022 |
DES
1 - 0
NAC
45%
25%
30%
|
44 | 45 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
USA
50%
24%
26%
|
44 | 40 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2022 |
NOR
2 - 1
NAC
57%
23%
19%
|
44 | 53 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Jabaquara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
JAB
1 - 0
BAR
48%
24%
28%
|
22 | 17 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2022 |
COL
1 - 1
JAB
37%
23%
40%
|
22 | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2022 |
JAB
0 - 1
MFC
20%
22%
58%
|
23 | 32 | 9 | -1 |
| 11 Jun. 2022 |
JAB
1 - 0
OSA
23%
22%
55%
|
22 | 27 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 Jun. 2022 |
MAU
1 - 3
JAB
62%
22%
16%
|
21 | 26 | 5 | +1 |