Nacional SP vs Guaratinguetá analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.1%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.8%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
11%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.9%
15.1%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2016 |
NAC
0 - 1
FLA
61%
21%
18%
|
51 | 46 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2016 |
INT
1 - 0
NAC
29%
27%
43%
|
52 | 46 | 6 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2016 |
RIO
1 - 2
NAC
43%
26%
31%
|
52 | 51 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2016 |
NAC
10 - 0
GRÊ
79%
15%
7%
|
52 | 25 | 27 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2016 |
PRI
2 - 2
NAC
22%
24%
54%
|
52 | 44 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Guaratinguetá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2016 |
GUA
0 - 2
SJS
53%
23%
24%
|
42 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2016 |
CAT
2 - 2
GUA
49%
24%
26%
|
42 | 47 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2016 |
GRE
1 - 1
GUA
51%
25%
24%
|
42 | 48 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 2016 |
GUA
0 - 0
ITA
50%
25%
26%
|
42 | 44 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2016 |
GUA
1 - 5
COM
46%
26%
28%
|
44 | 47 | 3 | -2 |