Nacional SP vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.3%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
7%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
33.3%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2022 |
RIO
1 - 0
NAC
30%
25%
46%
|
49 | 41 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2021 |
NAC
0 - 1
LIN
52%
23%
25%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2021 |
LIN
0 - 0
NAC
37%
25%
38%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2021 |
NOR
0 - 1
NAC
46%
25%
29%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2021 |
NAC
2 - 0
NOR
33%
26%
41%
|
47 | 53 | 6 | +2 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2022 |
COM
0 - 1
SER
46%
26%
28%
|
52 | 49 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2021 |
VOT
0 - 2
COM
57%
24%
20%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | +2 |
| 12 Oct. 2021 |
COM
0 - 0
BSP
55%
23%
23%
|
51 | 43 | 8 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2021 |
VEL
0 - 1
COM
48%
27%
25%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2021 |
COM
0 - 0
VEL
30%
26%
44%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | 0 |