Nacional SP vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.7%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.1%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
28.3%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional SP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2016 |
COM
1 - 2
NAC
48%
25%
27%
|
51 | 54 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2016 |
VOT
3 - 0
NAC
45%
26%
30%
|
53 | 54 | 1 | -2 |
| 24 Sep. 2016 |
NAC
1 - 1
RBB
25%
24%
51%
|
52 | 64 | 12 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 2016 |
NAC
4 - 1
SJS
62%
21%
17%
|
52 | 46 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2016 |
NAC
1 - 2
AGU
31%
23%
46%
|
52 | 58 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2016 |
COM
1 - 2
NAC
48%
25%
27%
|
54 | 51 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2016 |
RBB
1 - 1
COM
63%
22%
15%
|
54 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2016 |
COM
0 - 1
VOT
48%
25%
27%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 2016 |
MAT
0 - 1
COM
26%
25%
49%
|
54 | 43 | 11 | +1 |
| 08 Sep. 2016 |
COM
4 - 2
SAO
47%
26%
28%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | +1 |