Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 0-2
Nacional vs São Paulo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.8%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
6%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.3%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
38.1%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.7%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.4%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 1
PEÑ
48%
24%
28%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 0
BOS
50%
24%
25%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
4 - 0
CSM
51%
24%
25%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
DAN
0 - 6
NAC
37%
28%
35%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 1
JUN
58%
22%
20%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
SAO
1 - 0
ATL
42%
26%
32%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
GOI
0 - 0
SAO
38%
27%
35%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
SAO
1 - 0
FLA
42%
26%
31%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | +1 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
SAO
2 - 0
GOI
51%
25%
23%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
FOR
1 - 0
SAO
49%
25%
27%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |