Nacional vs River Plate Montevideo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.7%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.8%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.3%
15%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+36%
-10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
ETS
3 - 2
NAC
20%
25%
55%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 1
BVS
73%
17%
10%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
NAC
3 - 1
LFC
63%
21%
16%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 1
DAN
70%
19%
11%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2012 |
CER
1 - 0
NAC
21%
26%
53%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
River Plate Montevideo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
CEL
2 - 2
RIV
39%
27%
34%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
RIV
0 - 2
BVS
71%
18%
12%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | -1 |
| 13 Oct. 2012 |
RIV
0 - 0
PRO
69%
18%
13%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2012 |
RIV
1 - 3
MWA
64%
19%
17%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | -1 |
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
RIV
2 - 0
LFC
57%
22%
21%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | +1 |