Nacional vs Progreso analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.1%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.4%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.5%
1-0
13.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
9%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
19.2%
10.7%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+36%
-23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 0
AME
52%
25%
24%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2018 |
CER
1 - 2
NAC
26%
26%
48%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | +1 |
| 05 Aug. 2018 |
FEN
0 - 3
NAC
22%
26%
52%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
NAC
2 - 1
JUN
74%
18%
9%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2018 |
NAC
3 - 2
TOR
73%
18%
9%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Progreso
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2018 |
PRO
1 - 0
FEN
50%
26%
24%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2018 |
JUN
1 - 2
PRO
40%
28%
33%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2018 |
PRO
3 - 1
TOR
49%
25%
26%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | +1 |
| 22 Jul. 2018 |
DAN
2 - 2
PRO
57%
24%
19%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2018 |
PRO
0 - 2
TOR
52%
25%
24%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |