Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.4%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
28.3%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.3%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 2
DEF
53%
23%
24%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
3 - 1
BOS
53%
24%
23%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2024 |
DAN
0 - 0
NAC
34%
28%
38%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
NAC
4 - 0
TOR
53%
23%
25%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2024 |
NAC
5 - 2
DEP
63%
22%
15%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
PEÑ
3 - 1
FEN
54%
26%
21%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2024 |
PRO
1 - 5
PEÑ
48%
25%
27%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2024 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
DEF
42%
27%
31%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2024 |
MWA
0 - 2
PEÑ
44%
26%
30%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
LFC
40%
27%
34%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |