Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.8%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.1%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
24.3%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+25%
+31%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2015 |
RAC
2 - 2
NAC
27%
26%
47%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2015 |
NAC
1 - 2
SUD
74%
17%
10%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2015 |
FEN
0 - 2
NAC
32%
26%
42%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2015 |
NAC
4 - 0
DEF
59%
22%
19%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2015 |
ETS
1 - 1
NAC
23%
26%
51%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2015 |
PEÑ
4 - 1
VIL
76%
16%
8%
|
79 | 62 | 17 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2015 |
LFC
1 - 3
PEÑ
31%
26%
43%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2015 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
REN
70%
18%
12%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2015 |
DAN
0 - 1
PEÑ
33%
26%
42%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 2015 |
RIV
4 - 0
PEÑ
45%
24%
30%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | -1 |