Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.8%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.3%
3-0
8%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.6%
13.5%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 1972 |
PEÑ
0 - 3
NAC
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1972 |
NAC
3 - 3
UNI
69%
18%
12%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1972 |
NAC
1 - 1
PEÑ
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1972 |
UNI
3 - 0
NAC
39%
26%
35%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | -1 |
| 29 Dec. 1971 |
NAC
2 - 1
PAN
75%
15%
11%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 1972 |
PEÑ
0 - 3
NAC
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 1972 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
UNI
69%
18%
13%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1972 |
NAC
1 - 1
PEÑ
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1972 |
UNI
2 - 3
PEÑ
44%
27%
30%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1972 |
PEÑ
4 - 1
VAL
87%
8%
5%
|
84 | 32 | 52 | 0 |