Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.1%
Win probability
2.62
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.8%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.3%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
16.8%
15.2%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 1966 |
NAC
3 - 2
UCO
64%
19%
17%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1966 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
NAC
58%
20%
21%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1966 |
UCO
1 - 0
NAC
48%
23%
30%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 1966 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
NAC
67%
17%
16%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1966 |
NAC
3 - 1
OCT
75%
15%
10%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
UCO
66%
18%
16%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1966 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
NAC
58%
20%
21%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 1966 |
UCO
1 - 0
PEÑ
48%
23%
29%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 1966 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
NAC
67%
17%
16%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Mar. 1966 |
PEÑ
4 - 1
EME
66%
18%
16%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |