Copa Libertadores Semi-finals
Global 4-5
Nacional vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.1%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.7%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.9%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.8%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.9%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.6%
23.3%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.5%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb. 1962 |
RAC
2 - 2
NAC
82%
11%
7%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1962 |
NAC
3 - 2
RAC
61%
19%
20%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 1962 |
SPC
0 - 1
NAC
56%
21%
24%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 1962 |
NAC
3 - 2
SPC
63%
19%
18%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1961 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
SLB
57%
20%
23%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1961 |
PEÑ
5 - 0
SLB
54%
20%
26%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | +1 |
| 04 Sep. 1961 |
SLB
1 - 0
PEÑ
87%
8%
5%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1961 |
PAL
1 - 1
PEÑ
70%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1961 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PAL
71%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |