Nacional vs Independiente Medellín analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.9%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.8%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
21.9%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
NAC
4 - 0
FEN
70%
20%
11%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2023 |
DAN
0 - 0
NAC
29%
28%
43%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2023 |
MET
1 - 2
NAC
25%
26%
49%
|
82 | 65 | 17 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
NAC
42%
28%
31%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2023 |
NAC
3 - 0
RIV
61%
22%
17%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente Medellín
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
BUC
1 - 2
IND
27%
27%
47%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2023 |
IND
3 - 0
CAL
53%
26%
21%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2023 |
MIL
2 - 1
IND
49%
26%
25%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2023 |
IND
1 - 1
SCI
22%
28%
50%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
IND
1 - 1
TOL
35%
28%
37%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |