Nacional vs Fénix analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.4%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
14.1%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.9%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17.9%
9.7%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.3%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
11
2º
4º
3º
9
3º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
16 | 16 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 12 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
11 | 11 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 10 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
9 | 9 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 8 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
5 | 5 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 4 |
8º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2023 |
RAC
2 - 2
NAC
30%
28%
42%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2023 |
NAC
4 - 1
PLA
72%
18%
10%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2023 |
NAC
1 - 0
MET
76%
16%
9%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2023 |
LFC
3 - 0
NAC
49%
24%
26%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2023 |
NAC
4 - 0
DEP
67%
20%
13%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Fénix
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
CEL
2 - 1
FEN
45%
28%
27%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2023 |
FEN
3 - 0
RAC
31%
28%
41%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
PLA
1 - 1
FEN
45%
27%
27%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2023 |
FEN
0 - 0
CER
38%
28%
33%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
| 05 Jun. 2023 |
DEP
1 - 1
FEN
52%
26%
22%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | 0 |