Copa Libertadores Final
Global 3-1
Nacional vs Estudiantes La Plata analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.3%
Win probability
2.67
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.9%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21%
15.6%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.6%
12.1%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
8%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 1971 |
NAC
1 - 0
EST
72%
16%
12%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1971 |
EST
1 - 0
NAC
58%
21%
21%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
| 18 May. 1971 |
NAC
3 - 1
PAL
68%
17%
15%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1971 |
NAC
3 - 0
UNI
69%
18%
13%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | +1 |
| 02 May. 1971 |
PAL
0 - 3
NAC
54%
23%
23%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Estudiantes La Plata
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 1971 |
NAC
1 - 0
EST
72%
16%
12%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1971 |
RAC
1 - 1
EST
62%
21%
18%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1971 |
EST
1 - 0
NAC
58%
21%
21%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 May. 1971 |
PLA
5 - 0
EST
39%
27%
34%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 May. 1971 |
EST
2 - 1
UNI
71%
16%
13%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |