Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 2-2
Nacional vs LDU Loja analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.6%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.1%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.6%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.1%
12.3%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2012 |
CEN
0 - 2
NAC
30%
27%
42%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 0
CEL
68%
20%
13%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2012 |
LOJ
0 - 1
NAC
36%
26%
38%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
DEF
2 - 2
NAC
45%
25%
30%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2012 |
NAC
1 - 0
DEF
56%
23%
21%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
LDU Loja
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2012 |
LOJ
6 - 0
TEC
54%
25%
22%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2012 |
LOJ
0 - 1
NAC
36%
26%
38%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2012 |
LOJ
1 - 2
LIG
41%
28%
31%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2012 |
QUI
0 - 0
LOJ
61%
22%
17%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2012 |
LOJ
1 - 2
MAN
50%
26%
24%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | -1 |