Nacional vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.6%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
27%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.5%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
7
2º
8º
3º
1
10º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
9 | 12 |
1º
|
50% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 10 |
2º
|
21% | |
|
|
4º
|
7 | 10 |
3º
|
11.5% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 10 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 9 |
5º
|
17.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 9 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 7 |
7º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
8º
|
10% | |
|
7º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
10% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 7 |
10º
|
6.5% | |
|
11º
|
4 | 7 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 6 |
12º
|
14.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 4 |
13º
|
17% | |
|
|
13º
|
1 | 4 |
14º
|
25% | |
|
15º
|
1 | 4 |
15º
|
29% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 0 |
16º
|
77% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
12% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
88% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2024 |
MWA
0 - 2
NAC
42%
26%
32%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 0
LFC
45%
25%
30%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
SAO
2 - 0
NAC
55%
24%
21%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
RIV
3 - 3
NAC
48%
24%
28%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
SAO
36%
26%
38%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
DEF
1 - 2
RAC
46%
25%
30%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CER
1 - 1
DEF
38%
28%
34%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
DEF
1 - 2
JUN
54%
23%
22%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
DEF
43%
27%
31%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
DEF
0 - 1
RIV
49%
25%
26%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |