Nacional vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.8%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.6%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.5%
19.6%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+36%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb. 2013 |
TOL
2 - 3
NAC
51%
25%
24%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2013 |
NAC
2 - 2
BSC
59%
23%
19%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
SPC
0 - 2
NAC
45%
25%
31%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2013 |
NAC
3 - 2
GUA
67%
19%
14%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2012 |
NAC
1 - 0
MWA
69%
19%
13%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2013 |
OLI
2 - 0
DEF
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2013 |
DEF
0 - 0
OLI
57%
22%
21%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2012 |
DEF
2 - 0
CER
72%
18%
10%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2012 |
DEF
1 - 0
CEL
68%
20%
12%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2012 |
RIV
1 - 1
DEF
42%
25%
33%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |