Nacional vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.3%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.8%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.2%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
19.4%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
RIV
3 - 3
NAC
41%
25%
34%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 0
DEF
56%
24%
21%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2011 |
NAC
0 - 2
JUN
73%
17%
10%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 0
DEF
55%
24%
21%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2011 |
DAN
0 - 1
NAC
33%
26%
41%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
DEF
2 - 0
JUN
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 0
DEF
56%
24%
21%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
DEF
1 - 0
TAC
79%
15%
6%
|
78 | 59 | 19 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 0
DEF
55%
24%
21%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 May. 2011 |
DEF
1 - 1
PEÑ
44%
24%
32%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |