Nacional vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.3%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
10%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
21.1%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.8%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+38%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May. 2011 |
DAN
0 - 1
NAC
33%
26%
41%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2011 |
PEÑ
0 - 1
NAC
51%
24%
25%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 1
CEN
71%
19%
10%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2011 |
NAC
0 - 0
AME
45%
24%
32%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
RIV
4 - 2
NAC
37%
26%
38%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 2011 |
DEF
1 - 1
PEÑ
44%
24%
32%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
CEN
2 - 0
DEF
30%
27%
44%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2011 |
DEF
3 - 0
RAC
69%
19%
12%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
FEN
0 - 1
DEF
37%
27%
37%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
JUN
0 - 0
DEF
24%
26%
50%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |