Nacional vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.2%
Win probability
2.53
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.6%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.5%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.4%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.9%
14.7%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
7%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.7%
8.1%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 1992 |
NAC
2 - 2
AME
77%
15%
8%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1992 |
NAC
0 - 0
CCP
63%
22%
16%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1992 |
DEF
0 - 1
NAC
25%
26%
49%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1991 |
NAC
3 - 0
CRZ
56%
25%
19%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 1991 |
CRZ
4 - 0
NAC
42%
29%
30%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 1992 |
DEF
1 - 2
AME
59%
21%
20%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 1992 |
DEF
2 - 3
CCP
46%
24%
30%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Mar. 1992 |
DEF
0 - 1
NAC
25%
26%
49%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 1990 |
RIV
2 - 1
DEF
85%
10%
5%
|
72 | 84 | 12 | -1 |
| 05 Aug. 1990 |
DEF
1 - 2
RIV
29%
28%
44%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |