Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 3-1
Nacional vs Danubio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.4%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.8%
3-0
7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.8%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.7%
16.9%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2002 |
DEF
2 - 3
NAC
30%
26%
44%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2002 |
DAN
1 - 1
NAC
43%
24%
33%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2002 |
PEÑ
0 - 2
NAC
49%
24%
27%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2002 |
NAC
2 - 1
DEP
63%
21%
15%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2002 |
NAC
1 - 0
MWA
63%
20%
17%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Danubio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2002 |
DAN
1 - 3
PEÑ
43%
23%
34%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2002 |
DAN
1 - 1
NAC
43%
24%
33%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2002 |
FEN
1 - 3
DAN
50%
24%
27%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Aug. 2002 |
PLA
2 - 0
DAN
30%
26%
44%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2002 |
DAN
1 - 0
CEN
63%
21%
16%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |