Nacional vs Concepción analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.6%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.2%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
9%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
19.1%
11.3%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+45%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 2001 |
NAC
1 - 0
SLO
42%
25%
33%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2001 |
CON
0 - 0
NAC
31%
26%
43%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2001 |
NAC
3 - 0
JWI
57%
22%
21%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2000 |
NAC
3 - 3
BOC
30%
27%
44%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2000 |
OLI
4 - 3
NAC
54%
24%
23%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Concepción
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr. 2001 |
CON
1 - 1
USF
62%
22%
16%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2001 |
COB
1 - 2
CON
71%
19%
11%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2001 |
CON
1 - 2
PAL
32%
27%
41%
|
67 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2001 |
UCH
4 - 0
CON
71%
18%
11%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 2001 |
JWI
2 - 1
CON
64%
20%
15%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |