Nacional vs Cienciano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.6%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
6%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.3%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
19.6%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2004 |
NAC
0 - 0
IND
63%
21%
16%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2004 |
NAC
0 - 0
NAC
46%
25%
28%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2003 |
CSY
0 - 0
NAC
12%
22%
65%
|
80 | 58 | 22 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2003 |
NAC
3 - 0
DAN
58%
22%
20%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 22 Nov. 2003 |
DEP
3 - 0
NAC
26%
25%
50%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Cienciano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Feb. 2004 |
WAN
0 - 3
CIE
23%
25%
53%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2004 |
CIE
1 - 0
NAC
58%
22%
21%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 13 Feb. 2004 |
IND
4 - 2
CIE
43%
24%
33%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Dec. 2003 |
CIE
1 - 0
RIV
35%
24%
42%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2003 |
RIV
3 - 3
CIE
76%
14%
10%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |