Nacional vs Aurora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.4%
13.6%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 1962 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
NAC
66%
18%
16%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 1962 |
PEÑ
3 - 1
NAC
64%
18%
18%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Jul. 1962 |
NAC
2 - 1
PEÑ
56%
21%
23%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | +1 |
| 27 Feb. 1962 |
RAC
2 - 2
NAC
82%
11%
7%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1962 |
NAC
3 - 2
RAC
61%
19%
20%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 1964 |
AUR
2 - 2
CCP
47%
21%
33%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | 0 |