Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
Global 2-2
Nacional vs Boca Juniors analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.9%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.5%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
26.4%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.5%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 2016 |
NAC
1 - 0
RAC
71%
18%
11%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2016 |
COR
2 - 2
NAC
61%
23%
17%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2016 |
SUD
1 - 1
NAC
16%
24%
60%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2016 |
NAC
0 - 0
COR
36%
27%
37%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | -1 |
| 24 Apr. 2016 |
NAC
1 - 0
FEN
67%
20%
13%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 2016 |
BOC
0 - 0
HUR
60%
23%
17%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2016 |
BOC
3 - 1
CCP
63%
22%
15%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | +1 |
| 01 May. 2016 |
ARG
1 - 0
BOC
21%
28%
52%
|
84 | 67 | 17 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 2016 |
CCP
1 - 2
BOC
43%
26%
31%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2016 |
BOC
0 - 0
RIV
50%
25%
26%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |