Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 3-3
Nacional vs Bolívar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.8%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.8%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
29.8%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+31%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2000 |
ATP
2 - 0
NAC
60%
21%
19%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2000 |
ALI
2 - 2
NAC
34%
27%
40%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
1 - 0
EME
66%
21%
14%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
1 - 3
ATP
42%
25%
33%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 2000 |
NAC
2 - 0
ALI
70%
19%
11%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2000 |
BOL
4 - 1
BLO
56%
23%
21%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2000 |
BOL
4 - 1
COB
47%
26%
27%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Apr. 2000 |
APB
4 - 1
BOL
32%
26%
43%
|
75 | 65 | 10 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 2000 |
JWI
2 - 1
BOL
34%
26%
40%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2000 |
BVS
4 - 0
BOL
43%
23%
33%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |