Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 5-2
Nacional vs Bolívar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.6%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.5%
13.9%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+25%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 1991 |
COR
0 - 0
NAC
43%
29%
28%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1991 |
FLA
4 - 0
NAC
47%
28%
26%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1991 |
BVS
0 - 3
NAC
25%
26%
49%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1991 |
NAC
1 - 1
COR
64%
22%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1991 |
NAC
0 - 1
FLA
61%
22%
17%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 1991 |
BOC
0 - 0
BOL
72%
16%
12%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1991 |
RIV
2 - 0
BOL
73%
16%
11%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 1991 |
OPE
2 - 1
BOL
35%
25%
40%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | -1 |
| 12 Mar. 1991 |
BOL
2 - 0
BOC
45%
24%
31%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | +1 |
| 05 Mar. 1991 |
BOL
4 - 1
RIV
35%
26%
39%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | +1 |